The Astonishing Golden Spell Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the reason for the team's more general malaise.

This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the positive results have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

A reversion to average may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.